In the small square of Aschaffenburg
I open my office with the scent of morning coffee
tax files still fresh with new paper
Vietnamese businesses, small as sprouting seeds
standing unsteady through rising energy costs
and delayed shipments from the East.
The pho shop owner asks me:
“Will we survive this year?”
I look at the balance sheet
and hear the wind from Donetsk
moving through the ports of Hamburg.
War has never been far away
it lives in fuel invoices
in Germany’s winter gas prices
in ECB rates rising and falling
in the eyes of migrants
counting every last euro at month’s end.
Ukraine is learning to stand alone
as Europe learns to secure itself
while the United States shifts direction
and grand promises
shrink into geopolitical bargaining.
I understand Zelensky
not only through headlines
but through the logic of an economist:
any nation dependent on a single flow of capital
will eventually be governed by the market.
So Ukraine builds its drones
like Vietnamese small businesses in Germany
learning accounting software on their own
running advertisements
finding customers
so they do not die when banks tighten credit.
In Berlin, Frankfurt, Brussels
they speak of European defense
but in my small office
war appears differently—
in unpaid VAT refunds
in a weakening euro against the dollar
in rising insurance on Asian shipping containers
because the Middle East is burning again.
The global economy is a connected chessboard:
a missile falling in Iran
means a Vietnamese nail salon in Bavaria
pays more for electricity.
A sanction on Russian oil
pushes small German logistics firms to the edge.
A speech by Trump
turns European markets red
and migrant workers
cut back again on lunch.
I remain here
in peaceful Aschaffenburg
doing tax reports for small shops
yet every number on my screen
carries the shadow of geopolitics.
The world today
no longer has clear borders
war is not only guns and bullets
but energy, supply chains
and the right to self-determination.
Perhaps that is why
Ukraine is learning to step out of America’s shadow
Europe is learning to grow beyond dependence
and Vietnamese expatriates like us
are learning to stand firm
on our own feet
in a global economy
that changes direction every day.
